MLB / mlb / live
WSN 1 / ARI 5WSNWashington Nationals46%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCade Cavalli
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMichael Soroka
WSN46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
ARI54%ML -133
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.0 pts
Model picks ARI 53.5% despite WSN's massive offensive comparison (5.3 vs 2.6 RPG, .820 vs .564 OPS). Soroka has null ERA/IP/WHIP stats across 10 starts—data quality issue. Market at 54.6% home barely favors ARI. Model total 9.18 vs market 8.0 suggests over, backed by WSN's offense and Chase Field's 1.036 park factor. Lean WSN based on offensive mismatch.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -133WSN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total