MLB / mlb / live
WSN 6 / ARI 1WSNWashington Nationals53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterZack Littell
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterEduardo Rodriguez
WSN53%ML +130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
ARI47%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.4 pts
Model likes WSN 53% but market has ARI at 58%, a 5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Rodriguez (5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA) sample is tiny but real; Littell has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP). WSN offense (5.7 RPG, .820 OPS) is elite vs ARI (3.2 RPG, .564 OPS). Market likely knows more about Littell; prefer home lean on pitcher comparison. Total 9.06 vs line 9.5 suggests under.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -155WSN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total