MLB / mlb / live
WSN 6 / ARI 1WSNWashington Nationals53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterZack Littell
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterEduardo Rodriguez
WSN53%ML +130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
ARI47%ML -155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts
Model likes WSN 53% but market has ARI at 58%, a 5pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Rodriguez (5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA) sample is tiny but real; Littell has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP). WSN offense (5.7 RPG, .820 OPS) is elite vs ARI (3.2 RPG, .564 OPS). Market likely knows more about Littell; prefer home lean on pitcher comparison. Total 9.06 vs line 9.5 suggests under.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155WSN / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total