MLB / mlb / live
LAD 6 / ARI 5LADLos Angeles Dodgers46%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEric Lauer
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMichael Soroka
LAD46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ARI54%ML 0
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.0 pts
Market favors LAD at 52.4% implied, model has ARI at 53.6%. LAD's .743 OPS and 5.8 RPG dwarf ARI's .564 OPS and 4.5 RPG. Soroka's null ERA/IP suggests data quality issues despite 'full' label. Model picking worse offense triggers mismatch flag. Lean LAD but insufficient comparison for conviction.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / 0LAD / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML22 run line21 total