MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / ARI 9COLColorado Rockies36%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks64%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterJose Quintana
Model pickARI moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
COL36%ML +166
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
ARI64%ML -200
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Model (64.1%) and market (63.9%) align on ARI. Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP is an extreme small sample; Quintana's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP is also noisy. Both pitchers lack starter innings. Model total 8.8 vs market 9.0 is tight. COL's 3.2 RPG offense suggests fade the over despite Chase Field's slight park boost.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+166 / -200COL / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total