MLB / mlb / live
COL 3 / ARI 2COLColorado Rockies35%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks65%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterTomoyuki Sugano
Model pickARI moneyline65%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMichael Soroka
COL35%ML +185
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
ARI65%ML -225
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.6 pts
Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback. COL's 3.6 RPG road offense is weak. Model total 8.8 vs market 9.0 suggests slight under lean. Thin pitcher stats make strong confidence inappropriate.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.8
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+185 / -225COL / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-111)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -112 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total