MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / ARI 2COLColorado Rockies37%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks63%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterZach Agnos
Model pickARI moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterEduardo Rodriguez
COL37%ML +177
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
ARI63%ML -210
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.3 pts
Rodriguez has 5.0 IP across 10 starts (0.5 IP/start avg) — clearly injured/unavailable most of season. Agnos has 1.1 IP total. Both pitcher lines are statistical artifacts, not actionable data. Model is operating on team aggregates in a pitcher-dependent sport. Cannot form a view without real starter context.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+177 / -210COL / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total