MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / ARI 12SFGSan Francisco Giants40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterZac Gallen
SFG40%ML +118
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
ARI60%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.4 pts
Model likes ARI at 60.2% vs market's 56.4%, but both pitchers show tiny IP samples (Gallen 4.0 IP, Ray 5.1 IP) making season ERA/WHIP unreliable. Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 4 IP is noise, not signal. Market total 9.0 vs model 8.69 is close; slight lean under given Chase Field neutrality (PF 1.036) and both pitchers capable of better than current lines suggest.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -138SFG / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total