MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / ARI 1NYMNew York Mets59%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks41%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLean
Model pickNYM moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
NYM59%ML -136
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
ARI41%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.3 pts
Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM's .736 OPS creates mismatch despite own struggles. Model total 9.34 vs market 8.0 is significant but Chase Field's 1.036 PF supports higher scoring. McLean's 14.4 K/9 is real but won't hold full game.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-136 / +115NYM / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total