MLB / mlb / live
NYM 3 / ARI 1NYMNew York Mets59%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks41%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLean
Model pickNYM moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
NYM59%ML -136
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ARI41%ML +115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.5 pts
Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM's .736 OPS creates mismatch despite own struggles. Model total 9.34 vs market 8.0 is significant but Chase Field's 1.036 PF supports higher scoring. McLean's 14.4 K/9 is real but won't hold full game.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-136 / +115NYM / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total