MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / ARI 2NYMNew York Mets56%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterClay Holmes
Model pickNYM moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMerrill Kelly
NYM56%ML -120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
ARI44%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +100NYM / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -118
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total