MLB / mlb / live
PIT 1 / ARI 0PITPittsburgh Pirates52%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks48%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul Skenes
Model pickPIT moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterMichael Soroka
PIT52%ML -144
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
ARI48%ML +122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.5 pts
Model picks PIT at 52% vs market's 56%, reasonable convergence. Skenes' 67.5 ERA in 0.2 IP is unusable noise—flagged total_far_from_market (9.27 vs 7.5) stems from this data artifact. PIT's superior offense (.710 vs .564 OPS) and better record support the away side, but Skenes' stats make total unreliable. Lean PIT on team strength alone.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-144 / +122PIT / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total