MLB / mlb / live
SDP 6 / ARI 4SDPSan Diego Padres46%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGermán Márquez
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterZac Gallen
SDP46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
ARI54%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.6 pts
Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 4.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Márquez has no resolved stats. Market total of 16.0 is absurd for any MLB game; likely data error. Extreme park (1.522 PF) but cannot assess totals against broken line.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total16.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (-106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context16.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total