MLB / mlb / live
SDP 6 / ARI 4SDPSan Diego Padres46%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGermán Márquez
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterZac Gallen
SDP46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
ARI54%ML -118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts
Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 4.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Márquez has no resolved stats. Market total of 16.0 is absurd for any MLB game; likely data error. Extreme park (1.522 PF) but cannot assess totals against broken line.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total16.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (-106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context16.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total