MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / ARI 12SDPSan Diego Padres53%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks47%
at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterRyne Nelson
SDP53%ML -130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
ARI47%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts
Model predicts 9.3 runs; market set at 15.0. Park factor 1.522 is extreme but doesn't justify a 5.7-run gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5 IP is obviously unsustainable but he's dealing. Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP is real concern. Market knows something structural we're missing; defer to the total under despite high park factor.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total15.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-130 / +110SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context15.5O -110 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total