MLB / mlb / live
scheduledSDPSan Diego Padres40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael KingProbable
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260803_auto
ARIHome starterBrandon PfaadtProbable
SDP40%ML -102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
ARI60%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.4 pts
Model gives ARI 59.8% vs market's 51.7% — an 8-point gap I can't justify. King (3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.83 K/9 over 125 IP) is clearly the better starter than Pfaadt (4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.13 K/9), so slight lean SDP at plus money. Model's 10.28 total also looks high against a 9.0 line with King on the mound.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-102 / -115SDP / ARI moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total