MLB / mlb / live
CHW 7 / ARI 11CHWChicago White Sox40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterEduardo Rodriguez
CHW40%ML +129
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
ARI60%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.0 pts
Rodriguez's 5.0 IP over 10 starts is absurdly low (~0.5 IP/start); stat line is untrustworthy. Kay at 4.2 IP over 9 starts is similarly broken. Without usable pitcher data, can't validate model's 60.2% on ARI vs market's 58.5%. Total leans under market 9.0 given data noise.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+129 / -155CHW / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -102
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total