MLB / mlb / live
CHW 7 / ARI 11CHWChicago White Sox40%
ARIArizona Diamondbacks60%
at Chase Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickARI moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
ARIHome starterEduardo Rodriguez
CHW40%ML +129
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ARI60%ML -155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts
Rodriguez's 5.0 IP over 10 starts is absurdly low (~0.5 IP/start); stat line is untrustworthy. Kay at 4.2 IP over 9 starts is similarly broken. Without usable pitcher data, can't validate model's 60.2% on ARI vs market's 58.5%. Total leans under market 9.0 given data noise.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+129 / -155CHW / ARI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -102
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total