MLB / mlb / live
TBR 2 / MIL 3TBRTampa Bay Rays43%
MILMilwaukee Brewers57%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick MartinezProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20261019_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiProbable
TBR43%ML +160
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIL57%ML -190
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts
Market has MIL at 63.2% vs model's 56.9%; I side closer to the market. Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 12.98 K/9 is the clearest comparison on the card, and Martinez at 3.10 with only 5.45 K/9 leans on contact. Model's 7.70 total sits 1.2 above the 6.5 line despite an ace matchup and a 0.95 park factor with TBR at 3.8 RPG — under is the better side.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+160 / -190TBR / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total