MLB / mlb / live
LAD 3 / ATL 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers44%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline56%Model 20260928_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
LAD44%ML -110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
ATL56%ML -106
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.2 pts
Model's 7.96 total sits nearly 2 runs above the market's 6.0 with Sale (2.16 ERA, 11.07 K/9) opposite Yamamoto (2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) in a 0.915 run-suppressing park — that gap looks structural, so under. On the side, the model takes ATL despite LAD's 100-62 record and 5.0 RPG comparison; market has it near pick'em, so only a slight lean to the Dodgers.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatchace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -106LAD / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total