MLB / mlb / live
NYY 2 / TBR 5NYYNew York Yankees48%
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam SchlittlerProbable
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260928_auto
TBRHome starterFreddy PeraltaProbable
NYY48%ML -125
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TBR52%ML +106
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts
Model has TBR at 51.9% against a market implying 46.5%, and the pitching comparison runs the other way: Schlittler at 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.11 K/9 over 193.7 IP versus Peralta at 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP. Model's 8.04-run total is 1.5+ above the 6.5 line at a neutral park (PF 1.00); side with the market and lean under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total7.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +106NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -106 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total