sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-27 / 23 starters
Market
Lines
SEA at TEX / In progress / frozen pregame forecast
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K5.2
Best price at 5.55.5O +111 draftkings / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.575%
O 4.559%
O 5.542%
O 6.527%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K4.7
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.584%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

ARI at PIT
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -127 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K3.9
Best price at 3.53.5O -158 draftkings / U +132 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.573%
O 3.554%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PHI at MIA
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7
Best price at 6.56.5O -150 fanduel / U +125 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.589%
O 4.578%
O 5.564%
O 6.549%
O 7.535%
O 8.524%
O 9.515%
O 10.59%
O 11.55%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +118 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.533%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

BAL at DET
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.1
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -110 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.557%
O 5.540%
O 6.526%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -114 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.545%
O 5.529%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TOR at WSN
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K2.9
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 draftkings / U -157 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%
O 2.554%
O 3.532%
O 4.517%
O 5.58%
O 6.53%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Eddy YeanWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%
O 2.561%
O 3.539%
O 4.522%
O 5.511%
O 6.55%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

ATL at NYM
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.1
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.559%
O 4.540%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CLE at CIN
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.576%
O 5.562%
O 6.547%
O 7.533%
O 8.522%
O 9.513%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

NYY at CHW
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.9
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -145 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.571%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.523%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Noah SchultzCHW starter / home
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +109 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CHC at STL
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K3.6
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%
O 2.569%
O 3.548%
O 4.530%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.54%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

HOU at LAA
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K5.8
Best price at 6.56.5O +123 draftkings / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.568%
O 5.552%
O 6.536%
O 7.524%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Walbert UrenaLAA starter / home
Projected K5.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 betrivers / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

BOS at OAK
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 bovada / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +112 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIL at SFG
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.529%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tyler MahleSFG starter / home
Projected K4.3
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 draftkings / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.562%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

sharps.gg