Results

Pick tracking by window, sport, and probability.

Review graded picks, pending games, and probability-bucket win rates across MLB/NHL moneyline and Soccer 1X2.

2026-09-06 to 2026-09-08
Range
Sport
Market
Record23-1740 graded / 1 pending
Actual Win Rate57.5%0 pushes / 0 voids
Avg Pick Probability56.1%Expected wins: 22.5
Calibration Gap+1.4 ptsActual win rate minus avg probability

MLB Moneyline

Probability Buckets

50.0%-52.5%5-4 / small sample
55.6%avg 50.6%
+5.0 pts9 picks
52.5%-55.0%4-4 / small sample
50.0%avg 54.0%
-4.0 pts8 picks
55.0%-57.5%3-6 / small sample
33.3%avg 56.8%
-23.5 pts9 picks
57.5%-60.0%2-2 / small sample
50.0%avg 57.8%
-7.8 pts4 picks
60.0%-62.5%6-1 / small sample
85.7%avg 60.8%
+24.9 pts7 picks
62.5%-65.0%3-0 / small sample
100.0%avg 63.3%
+36.7 pts3 picks

MLB moneyline overlay

AI Analyst Results

AI Analyst Record16-723 graded / 1 pending
AI Analyst Win Rate69.6%24 tracked picks
Same-Game Compare3-2Analyst won/model lost vs analyst lost/model won
Model Flips52 away from wins / 3 away from losses

Agreement

Agrees with base model13-5
72.2%18 graded
Disagrees with base model3-2 / small sample
60.0%5 graded

Confidence Labels

Standard16 tracked
68.8%11-5
Lean8 tracked / small sample
71.4%5-2

Rank Bands

Rank 13 tracked / small sample
66.7%2-1
Ranks 2-36 tracked / small sample
100.0%6-0
Ranks 4-56 tracked / small sample
83.3%5-1
Rank 6+9 tracked / small sample
37.5%3-5

Same-Game Outcomes

AI Analyst win rate69.6%
Base model win rate65.2%
Both won / both lost13 / 5
Compared games23
CIN @ LAD / standard / rank 2
AI Analyst: LAD moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: LAD moneyline57.6%
WonModel Won
STL @ SFG / lean / rank 7
AI Analyst: SFG moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: STL moneyline54.1%
WonModel Lost
WSN @ SDP / standard / rank 4
AI Analyst: SDP moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: SDP moneyline61.2%
WonModel Won
TEX @ SEA / lean / rank 10
AI Analyst: SEA moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: SEA moneyline56.2%
pendingModel pending
ARI @ KCR / lean / rank 9
AI Analyst: KCR moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: KCR moneyline50.1%
LostModel Lost
CHC @ MIL / standard / rank 3
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: MIL moneyline57.6%
WonModel Won
COL @ NYY / standard / rank 1
AI Analyst: NYY moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: NYY moneyline61.1%
WonModel Won
LAA @ BOS / lean / rank 8
AI Analyst: BOS moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: BOS moneyline61.2%
LostModel Lost
MIN @ DET / standard / rank 5
AI Analyst: DET moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: MIN moneyline54.1%
LostModel Won
NYM @ MIA / standard / rank 6
AI Analyst: MIA moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: MIA moneyline50.2%
LostModel Lost
STL @ SFG / standard / rank 1
AI Analyst: SFG moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: STL moneyline58.1%
WonModel Lost
CHC @ MIL / standard / rank 2
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: CHC moneyline51.6%
WonModel Lost
CLE @ BAL / lean / rank 3
AI Analyst: BAL moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: BAL moneyline57.2%
WonModel Won
LAA @ BOS / lean / rank 5
AI Analyst: BOS moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: BOS moneyline54.6%
WonModel Won
ATL @ PHI / lean / rank 4
AI Analyst: PHI moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: PHI moneyline61.1%
WonModel Won
WSN @ LAD / standard / rank 5
AI Analyst: LAD moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: LAD moneyline62.5%
WonModel Won
MIN @ CHW / standard / rank 6
AI Analyst: CHW moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: CHW moneyline64.9%
WonModel Won
NYY @ SDP / standard / rank 1
AI Analyst: NYY moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: NYY moneyline56.8%
LostModel Lost
OAK @ SEA / standard / rank 3
AI Analyst: SEA moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: SEA moneyline60.4%
WonModel Won
TOR @ KCR / standard / rank 8
AI Analyst: TOR moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: KCR moneyline50.2%
LostModel Won
DET @ CLE / standard / rank 2
AI Analyst: CLE moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: CLE moneyline62.5%
WonModel Won
CHC @ MIA / standard / rank 7
AI Analyst: CHC moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: CHC moneyline55.1%
LostModel Lost
SFG @ NYM / lean / rank 9
AI Analyst: NYM moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: NYM moneyline60.4%
WonModel Won
LAA @ PIT / standard / rank 4
AI Analyst: PIT moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: PIT moneyline60.4%
WonModel Won

Pick ledger

Tracked Picks

CIN @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline57.6%
Won2-3
STL @ SFG / Moneyline
STL moneyline54.1%
Lost1-2
TOR @ OAK / Moneyline
TOR moneyline54.1%
Won4-2
WSN @ SDP / Moneyline
SDP moneyline61.2%
Won4-5
TEX @ SEA / Moneyline
SEA moneyline56.2%
pending10-5
PIT @ CHW / Moneyline
CHW moneyline57.2%
Lost9-3
ARI @ KCR / Moneyline
KCR moneyline50.1%
Lost5-3
CHC @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline57.6%
Won3-4
TBR @ ATL / Moneyline
ATL moneyline54.2%
Lost7-1
COL @ NYY / Moneyline
NYY moneyline61.1%
Won3-5
LAA @ BOS / Moneyline
BOS moneyline61.2%
Lost6-1
MIN @ DET / Moneyline
MIN moneyline54.1%
Won3-2
NYM @ MIA / Moneyline
MIA moneyline50.2%
Lost7-5
HOU @ PHI / Moneyline
PHI moneyline57.2%
Lost6-5
CLE @ BAL / Moneyline
BAL moneyline57.2%
Lost9-5
TOR @ OAK / Moneyline
TOR moneyline58.1%
Lost5-6
CIN @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline56.2%
Won3-6
STL @ SFG / Moneyline
STL moneyline58.1%
Lost4-5
WSN @ SDP / Moneyline
SDP moneyline57.2%
Won2-3
MIN @ DET / Moneyline
DET moneyline54.2%
Won4-5
ARI @ KCR / Moneyline
KCR moneyline53.4%
Lost5-4
CHC @ MIL / Moneyline
CHC moneyline51.6%
Lost3-4
CLE @ BAL / Moneyline
BAL moneyline57.2%
Won4-6
LAA @ BOS / Moneyline
BOS moneyline54.6%
Won2-5
NYM @ MIA / Moneyline
MIA moneyline53.7%
Lost9-4
ATL @ PHI / Moneyline
PHI moneyline61.1%
Won0-1
WSN @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline62.5%
Won5-7
MIN @ CHW / Moneyline
CHW moneyline64.9%
Won1-10
NYY @ SDP / Moneyline
NYY moneyline56.8%
Lost3-4
OAK @ SEA / Moneyline
SEA moneyline60.4%
Won0-2
STL @ COL / Moneyline
STL moneyline50.5%
Won10-8
TBR @ TEX / Moneyline
TBR moneyline56.8%
Lost6-8
ARI @ HOU / Moneyline
ARI moneyline50.5%
Won3-2
TOR @ KCR / Moneyline
KCR moneyline50.2%
Won1-6
DET @ CLE / Moneyline
CLE moneyline62.5%
Won2-3
CHC @ MIA / Moneyline
CHC moneyline55.1%
Lost3-10
SFG @ NYM / Moneyline
NYM moneyline60.4%
Won2-4
BOS @ BAL / Moneyline
BOS moneyline50.5%
Won3-1
LAA @ PIT / Moneyline
PIT moneyline60.4%
Won0-1
ATL @ PHI / Moneyline
ATL moneyline51.3%
Won5-4
MIL @ CIN / Moneyline
MIL moneyline50.5%
Lost8-12
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