Results

Pick tracking by window, sport, and probability.

Review graded picks, pending games, and probability-bucket win rates across MLB/NHL moneyline and Soccer 1X2.

2026-07-10 to 2026-07-10
Range
Sport
Market
Record7-714 graded / 0 pending
Actual Win Rate50.0%0 pushes / 0 voids
Avg Pick Probability54.5%Expected wins: 7.6
Calibration Gap-4.5 ptsActual win rate minus avg probability

MLB Moneyline

Probability Buckets

50.0%-52.5%2-1 / small sample
66.7%avg 50.7%
+16.0 pts3 picks
52.5%-55.0%3-2 / small sample
60.0%avg 52.9%
+7.1 pts5 picks
55.0%-57.5%1-3 / small sample
25.0%avg 56.3%
-31.3 pts4 picks
60.0%-62.5%1-1 / small sample
50.0%avg 60.6%
-10.6 pts2 picks

MLB moneyline overlay

AI Analyst Results

AI Analyst Record5-510 graded / 0 pending
AI Analyst Win Rate50.0%10 tracked picks
Same-Game Compare3-3Analyst won/model lost vs analyst lost/model won
Model Flips63 away from wins / 3 away from losses

Agreement

Agrees with base model2-2 / small sample
50.0%4 graded
Disagrees with base model3-3 / small sample
50.0%6 graded

Confidence Labels

Standard2 tracked / small sample
50.0%1-1
Lean8 tracked / small sample
50.0%4-4

Rank Bands

Rank 11 tracked / small sample
100.0%1-0
Ranks 2-32 tracked / small sample
50.0%1-1
Ranks 4-52 tracked / small sample
50.0%1-1
Rank 6+5 tracked / small sample
40.0%2-3

Same-Game Outcomes

AI Analyst win rate50.0%
Base model win rate50.0%
Both won / both lost2 / 2
Compared games10

Pick ledger

Tracked Picks

sharps.gg