Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has ATL 69% vs market's 52% — a 17-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Griffin's 2.76 ERA in 124 IP is legitimate, ATL offense sits mid-...

Model has ARI at 55.2%, market also 55.2% via -129/+119 odds—no comparison on side. Bratt's 6.32 ERA in 15.2 IP is shaky but CLE offense is league-...

Model favors TEX at 54.2%, market has them at 46.5% — 8-point disagreement triggers flag but both view this as a coin flip. Extreme park (PF 0.81)...

Model favors CIN 54.1% vs market 45.3% — an 8.9pp gap flags market_disagreement_large. PIT has better record (55-55 vs 51-57) and offense (.710 OPS...

PHI pitcher TBD means the model is using a generic fallback; the 10.98 K/9 may not reflect tonight's actual starter. Model has PHI at 55.2% vs mark...

Model predicts 12.63 total vs market 11.0 in Coors (PF 1.47). The park factor dominates SHAP for total (+1.096), which is correct. Market at pick'e...