PIT at CIN

Model and market perfectly align at 58.4% CIN. Burns (2.40 ERA, 10.22 K/9 in 112.7 IP) is significantly better than Keller (4.83 ERA). offense_defe...

Market has LAD at 62.7%, model at 58.4% — a 4.3pp gap favoring Boston relative to the model. Bennett's 2.74 ERA in 65.7 IP is legitimate, Sheehan's...

Wheeler's 2.53 ERA and 10.75 K/9 over 103 IP is elite. Model converges with market on PHI (55% vs Pinnacle 56%). Camden Yards pitcher park (0.94 PF...

Model predicts 9.16 runs vs market 6.5, a 2.66-run gap flagged correctly. Cole (3.57 ERA, 9.66 K/9) is a legitimate weapon, Rea less so (4.67 ERA)....

Misiorowski (1.58 ERA, 13.88 K/9, 0.75 WHIP in 120 IP) is elite; market at -217 implies 68.4% MIL win vs model's 55.2%. Model systematically underw...

Market implies TBR 59.6%, model has 54.8% — material disagreement favoring home side. CHW offense (4.3 RPG, .729 OPS) superior to TBR (2.9 RPG, .80...

Model's 8.89 total is 1.9 runs above market's 7.0 at T-Mobile (PF 0.855), flagging structural error. Park factor drives -0.378 SHAP for totals; mod...

Home pitcher Robert Stock has fallback data (3 starts, no stats resolved), creating structural uncertainty. Market favors MIA at -115 (52.4% implie...

Model predicts 9.37 runs at Coors (PF 1.47) while market sets 11.5. The 2.1-run gap flags structural misweighting of park context. Freeland's 7.34...

Model sees coin flip (50.9%), market leans CLE hard at 59.3%. ARI's 6.7 RPG offense is league-best but Williams' 3.71 ERA and 11.34 K/9 in 133 IP i...

Model has DET at 50.8%, market implies 51.6% — essentially a coin flip. DET's 6.6 RPG vs OAK's 3.4 RPG is stark. Model total of 9.32 runs is 1.68 u...

Market has SDP at 57.7% implied, model barely leans SFG at 50.8%. The 7pp gap triggers the disagreement flag but market is priced correctly: King's...