Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has MIN 58.4%, market implies 62.0% — moderate disagreement favoring home. Joe Ryan's 3.38 ERA over 114 IP is legitimate; Dobnak's 1.42 ERA i...

Model (58.3%) and market (61.2% implied) both favor PHI. Luzardo's 3.31 ERA over 122 IP is legitimate, Gusto's 4.50 in 34 IP is small-sample noisy....

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 57.0% — tight convergence. Schlittler's 2.07 ERA and 10.84 K/9 over 130 IP is elite, Martin's 3.49 ERA is solid. Ace ma...

Sale (2.19 ERA, 111 IP) vs Scott (3.13 ERA, 63 IP) is a legitimate ace matchup at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Model has total at 8.9 vs market 7.0...

Model likes TEX 54.2%, market has TBR at 56.6% — a 12-point swing triggering the disagreement flag. TBR's offense (4.7 RPG, .802 OPS) is superior t...