CHE at ARS

Model at 64.9% vs market 57.4% is a modest gap; CHW's better record (74-68) and Hudson's 3.03 ERA/8.34 K9 over Ober's 4.37 ERA/6.27 K9 justify sidi...

Model 62.5% and market 60.5% on CLE are effectively aligned; Williams' 11.98 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP over 163 IP outclasses Jobe (4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 23...

Model (62.5%) and market (65.2%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is defensible. Both starters are solid — Wroble...

Model (60.4%) sits slightly under market's 63.7% on PIT, so no real comparison, but Skenes at 10.76 K/9 and 1.16 WHIP with home park is a defensibl...

Model 60.4% vs market 58.3% on NYM — essentially convergent, so no comparison to press. Perdomo has just 4.0 IP on record, so his 2.25 ERA carries...

Market implies 64% on SEA vs model 60.4%, so no disagreement on side. Woo's 1.09 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 148 IP outclasses Jump's 1.49 WHIP and 5.15...

Yankees are the better team on both sides: 81-61 with 4.8 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.2 RPG and .547 OPS. Market is near pick'em (+102/-1...

Model (55% CHC) and market (-140, ~57%) agree on direction, so no comparison to fight. Holmes at 2.09 ERA/1.07 WHIP over 81.7 IP is the better of t...

Model lands on KCR at 50.2% versus market 47.8%, but that pick fights both the record (72-71 vs 63-80) and the offense gap (TOR 5.5 RPG, .786 OPS v...