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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-10 / 10 starters
Market
Lines
TBR at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 bovada / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -135 betmgm / U +130 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 2.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

HOU at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristian JavierHOU starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 draftkings / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

TEX at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.55%over
O 11.53%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betmgm / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

COL at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

PIT at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 betmgm / U +124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Hagen SmithCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.