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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-11 / 4 starters
Market
NYM at NYY
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.580%
O 4.565%
O 5.548%
O 6.533%
O 7.521%
O 8.512%
O 9.57%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PHI at ATL
Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.597%
O 3.593%
O 4.585%
O 5.574%
O 6.561%
O 7.547%
O 8.534%
O 9.523%
O 10.515%
O 11.59%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CIN at MIL
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.4
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.575%
O 5.561%
O 6.546%
O 7.532%
O 8.521%
O 9.513%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CLE at MIN
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.4
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.562%
O 5.545%
O 6.530%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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