Results

Pick tracking by window, sport, and probability.

Review graded picks, pending games, and probability-bucket win rates across MLB/NHL moneyline and Soccer 1X2.

2026-10-09 to 2026-11-07
Range
Sport
Market
Record10-616 graded / 0 pending
Actual Win Rate62.5%0 pushes / 9 voids
Avg Pick Probability54.8%Expected wins: 8.8
Calibration Gap+7.7 ptsActual win rate minus avg probability

MLB Moneyline

Probability Buckets

50.0%-52.5%3-0 / small sample
100.0%avg 51.3%
+48.7 pts3 picks
52.5%-55.0%2-3 / small sample
40.0%avg 53.8%
-13.8 pts5 picks
55.0%-57.5%5-2 / small sample
71.4%avg 56.5%
+15.0 pts7 picks
57.5%-60.0%0-1 / small sample
0.0%avg 58.4%
-58.4 pts1 picks

MLB moneyline overlay

AI Analyst Results

AI Analyst Record9-615 graded / 0 pending
AI Analyst Win Rate60.0%15 tracked picks
Same-Game Compare3-3Analyst won/model lost vs analyst lost/model won
Model Flips63 away from wins / 3 away from losses

Agreement

Agrees with base model6-3 / small sample
66.7%9 graded
Disagrees with base model3-3 / small sample
50.0%6 graded

Confidence Labels

Standard8 tracked / small sample
50.0%4-4
Lean7 tracked / small sample
71.4%5-2

Rank Bands

Rank 11 tracked / small sample
0.0%0-1
Ranks 2-31 tracked / small sample
0.0%0-1

Same-Game Outcomes

AI Analyst win rate60.0%
Base model win rate60.0%
Both won / both lost6 / 3
Compared games15
MIL @ TBR / standard
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline53.6%
WonModel Lost
MIL @ TBR / standard
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline53.6%
LostModel Won
MIL @ TBR / lean
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline52.9%
WonModel Lost
TBR @ MIL / standard
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: MIL moneyline56.9%
WonModel Won
TBR @ MIL / standard
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: MIL moneyline56.9%
WonModel Won
CLE @ TBR / lean
AI Analyst: TBR moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline56.9%
WonModel Won
TBR @ CLE / lean
AI Analyst: TBR moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: CLE moneyline56.2%
WonModel Lost
TBR @ CLE / standard
AI Analyst: TBR moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline50.3%
WonModel Won
MIL @ LAD / lean
AI Analyst: LAD moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: LAD moneyline54.4%
LostModel Lost
MIL @ LAD / standard
AI Analyst: LAD moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: LAD moneyline56.1%
LostModel Lost
CLE @ TBR / lean
AI Analyst: CLE moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline51.9%
LostModel Won
CLE @ TBR / standard / rank 1
AI Analyst: TBR moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: TBR moneyline58.4%
LostModel Lost
LAD @ MIL / standard / rank 2
AI Analyst: LAD moneylineDisagreed with base model
Base: MIL moneyline56.1%
LostModel Won
LAD @ MIL / lean
AI Analyst: MIL moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: MIL moneyline56.2%
WonModel Won
CHW @ CLE / lean
AI Analyst: CLE moneylineAgreed with base model
Base: CLE moneyline54.4%
WonModel Won

Pick ledger

Tracked Picks

TBR @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline57.9%
voidNo score yet
TBR @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline57.9%
voidNo score yet
MIL @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline53.6%
Lost4-1
MIL @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline53.6%
Won3-4
MIL @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline52.9%
Lost10-1
TBR @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline56.9%
Won4-5
TBR @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline56.9%
Won2-3
CLE @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline52.9%
voidNo score yet
CLE @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline56.9%
Won3-7
LAD @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline58.4%
voidNo score yet
LAD @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline58.4%
voidNo score yet
TBR @ CLE / Moneyline
CLE moneyline56.2%
Lost3-1
TBR @ CLE / Moneyline
TBR moneyline50.3%
Won7-3
MIL @ LAD / Moneyline
MIL moneyline50.3%
voidNo score yet
MIL @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline54.4%
Lost6-4
TBR @ CLE / Moneyline
CLE moneyline51.9%
Won2-3
MIL @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline56.1%
Lost6-2
CLE @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline51.9%
Won1-3
CLE @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline58.4%
Lost7-3
LAD @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline56.1%
Won4-7
LAD @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline56.2%
Won1-2
NYY @ TBR / Moneyline
TBR moneyline51.9%
voidNo score yet
CHW @ CLE / Moneyline
CLE moneyline54.4%
Won0-2
ATL @ LAD / Moneyline
LAD moneyline54.4%
voidNo score yet
SDP @ MIL / Moneyline
MIL moneyline58.4%
voidNo score yet
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