OAK at TEX

Model (66.6%) and market (63.9%) agree on TEX; Gore's 9.94 K/9 over 149.1 IP is a real comparison over Basso, who has only 28 IP across 8 starts. T...

Model (62.5%) and market (60%) agree on PIT, so the side is defensible on Skenes (10.86 K/9, 1.12 WHIP) versus a Webb start that is similarly effec...

Model at 60.9% for MIN vs market's 47.8% is a 13-point gap with no clear justification. Melton's 1.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 97 IP is the more esta...

Model takes NYM (62-76, .736 OPS, 3.4 RPG) over TBR (82-55, .802 OPS) against the market's -125 home price, a ~10-point implied gap with no clear s...

Model gives CIN 54.2% while the market implies 44.4% — a 10-point gap I can't justify. San Diego has the better record (73-65) and the better start...

Model lands on HOU despite the worse record (70-68 vs 72-65), worse offense (.695 vs .729 OPS) and the far weaker starter. Burke's 149 IP at 3.32 E...

Phillies bring the better record (78-60) and much better scoring (5.0 RPG vs 3.8), plus Luzardo's 11.21 K/9. Market at -128 is more confident than...

Model has ATL at 50.5% versus market's ~62% implied, a large gap I'd resolve toward the market given ATL's 82-56 record. Smith-Shawver's 13.7 IP ov...

Near coin flip: model has MIL at 50.5% while market implies 54.1% for CHC, so the gap is small. MIL's 85-53 record versus 78-60 is the cleanest sig...