MLB moneyline board.

Market's 74.8% on NYY looks closer than the model's 61.1%. Schlittler (2.04 ERA, 11.01 K/9, 0.94 WHIP) against a .531 OPS Colorado lineup, opposed by Hughes at 6.19 ER...

Model's 57.6% on LAD is well below the market's 73.8% implied, and the market looks right: Skubal (2.86 ERA, 10.81 K/9, 0.98 WHIP) against Lodolo (5.08 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)...

Market at 65.8% looks better calibrated than the model's 57.6% given the starter gap: Misiorowski at 1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 13.18 K/9 against Peterson's 5.39 ERA and 1.5...

Model (61.2%) and market (62.6%) agree on San Diego; Mize's 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 113.7 IP is a clear comparison over Cornelio's 5.96 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 22.7 I...

Model has MIN at 54.1% against a market implying 56.1% for Detroit, a double-digit swing driven by Minnesota's offensive comparison (5.5 RPG, .673 OPS vs .582). The st...

Market (-121, 53.7%) is slightly higher on Miami than the model's 50.2%, and the pitching matchup supports the home side: Alcantara at 3.54 ERA / 1.19 WHIP over 195.7...

Model's 9.36-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.5 market line despite Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor being its own top negative total feature - a structural mis...

Boston is the better team (80-65 vs 54-90) but the pitching matchup cuts the other way: Detmers at 3.44 ERA/1.06 WHIP with 10.1 K/9 is well ahead of Sandoval's 4.41 ER...

Essentially a coin flip: model has KCR at 50.1%, market implies 48.1%. Wacha's 3.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 176.7 IP is solid, resolved data, while the Burnes line is a...

Both starters are TBD with fallback stat lines, so neither side's projection is trustworthy. Market has SEA at 54.6% vs model 61.1%; I side with the market's smaller c...