MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-06-25 / 16 starters
Market
Lines
KCR at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -140 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Casey LeguminaTBR starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.568%under
O 2.542%under
O 3.522%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

SEA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 betrivers / U +128 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

OAK at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betmgm / U -138 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

HOU at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -117 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

PHI at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +114 fanduel / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

TEX at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 draftkings / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 draftkings / U +116 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHC at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 fanduel / U -134 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

NYY at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 fanduel / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyBOS starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 fanduel / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.