MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-06-26 / 29 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
CIN at PIT Jun 26, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Abbott CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 fanatics / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 7.5 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -144 draftkings / U +120 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 47% under
O 8.5 34% under
O 9.5 23% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
HOU at DET Jun 26, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSpencer Arrighetti HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betrivers / U -111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Keider Montero DET starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 50% under
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
WSN at BAL Jun 26, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Alvarez WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -143 betrivers / U +118 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trevor Rogers BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 fanatics / U +104 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
TEX at TOR Jun 26, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNathan Eovaldi TEX starter / away
Projected K 5.3 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +135 bovada / U -155 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Patrick Corbin TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 betmgm / U +140 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ARI at TBR Jun 26, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZac Gallen ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 72% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Nick Martinez TBR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +118 fanduel / U -125 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
PHI at NYM Jun 26, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZack Wheeler PHI starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -110 betmgm / U -106 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zach Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -148 fanduel / U +120 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SEA at CLE Jun 26, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLuis Castillo SEA starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.3 Actual 4 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Joey Cantillo CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 18% over
O 8.5 10% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
NYY at BOS Jun 26, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betrivers / U +104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
KCR at CHW Jun 26, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSteven Cruz KCR starter / away
Projected K 2.1 Actual 3 K
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 62% over
O 2.5 36% over
O 3.5 17% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 2% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
David Sandlin CHW starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 fanatics / U -144 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 22%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 22% over
O 5.5 11% over
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at MIL Jun 26, 5:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastColin Rea CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +135 bovada / U -154 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob Misiorowski MIL starter / home
Projected K 8.8 Actual 8 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.5 8.5 O -118 betmgm / U +116 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 8.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 97% over
O 4.5 92% over
O 5.5 85% over
O 6.5 75% over
O 7.5 63% over
O 8.5 50% under
O 9.5 38% under
O 10.5 28% under
O 11.5 19% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
COL at MIN Jun 26, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTomoyuki Sugano COL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -143 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Taj Bradley MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 betmgm / U -125 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIA at STL Jun 26, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Meyer MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
OAK at LAA Jun 26, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJ.T. Ginn OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +114 betrivers / U +105 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Walbert Urena LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 draftkings / U -159 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAD at SDP Jun 26, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRoki Sasaki LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 fanduel / U -106 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Walker Buehler SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +136 fanduel / U -143 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at SFG Jun 26, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastReynaldo López ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -104 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 2.5 64%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% under
O 2.5 64% under
O 3.5 43% under
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.