Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has TOR at 58.6% vs market's 45.2% — a 13.4-point gap. Gausman's 16.5 K/9 and 0.17 WHIP over 60 IP is elite, not noise. Rasmussen's 3.6 K/9 i...

Model at 58.6% for LAD vs market's 69.4% is a massive gap. Daikin Park's 0.81 run factor is extreme pitcher-friendly. Ohtani's strikeout dominance...

Jovani Morán has 2.0 IP this season—essentially an opener or bulk guy, not a traditional starter. Model treats this as ace_matchup based on Valdez'...

Model has PHI 58% vs market 63%; offense_defense_mismatch fired (PHI 15-20, worse record and 4.3 RPG vs OAK 18-16, 4.7 RPG). Sánchez stats (6 IP, 0...

Model sees CLE 55.7%, market has them at 51.4% – minimal comparison. Model's 9.31 total is 1.8 runs over market 7.5, likely driven by Kauffman's 1....

Model favors BAL 55.2%, market has MIA 54.8%—basically a coin flip. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA across 7.0 IP (10 starts) signals extreme small sample or...

Webb's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is not a real 10.8 pitcher (tiny sample), but he is clearly struggling. Buehler has zero resolved stats—data_quality is '...

Model has CIN at 52% but market prices CHC at 60.5% (Pinnacle -162). That's an 8-point gap flagged as market_disagreement_large. CHC is 23-12 with...