Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has DET 62.9% vs market 55.2% — a 7.7pp gap favoring the home side. But DET scores just 2.4 RPG (.582 OPS) while LAA scores 3.4 RPG (.860 OPS...

Model has CLE 60% vs market 56%, but WSN offense is demonstrably superior: 5.9 RPG / .820 OPS vs CLE 4.1 / .600. Both pitchers show identical 4.91...

Model favors CHC 58.6% vs market's 44.8% (implied from +119). Missing pitcher stats for both starters makes this thin—model leans on rolling offens...

Model gives CHW 57.5% at home despite Joe Ryan's elite 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP vs Burke's 6.75 ERA and 2.0 WHIP in limited IP. Market correctly favo...