Ranked picks with source labels.

Model favors HOU 58.3% vs market's 44.9% implied — an 13.4pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. DET's 0.4 RPG offense is catastrophically bad over...

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 52.3% — modest comparison. Cole (3.62 ERA, 8.07 K/9) is solid but Bennett (3.71 ERA in 26.7 IP) has been competent. BOS...

Model favors ARI 58.3% vs market 41.2% (large disagreement flag). Jose Cabrera has 1 start, 5.0 IP—meaningless sample. Cole Sulser 5.40 ERA in 31.7...

Model has LAD at 58.3%, market implies 64.3% — a 6-point gap favoring the Dodgers more than model suggests. Yamamoto (2.65 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs Vásqu...

Model picks CIN at 53.4%, market implies 51.6% for CIN. Chase Burns' 2.00 ERA in 85.7 IP is real; Jones' 5.75 ERA in 20.3 IP is small-sample noise....