Ranked picks with source labels.

Boston is the better team (80-65 vs 54-90) but the pitching matchup cuts the other way: Detmers at 3.44 ERA/1.06 WHIP with 10.1 K/9 is well ahead o...

Model (61.2%) and market (62.6%) agree on San Diego; Mize's 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 113.7 IP is a clear comparison over Cornelio's 5.96 ERA and...

Market's 74.8% on NYY looks closer than the model's 61.1%. Schlittler (2.04 ERA, 11.01 K/9, 0.94 WHIP) against a .531 OPS Colorado lineup, opposed...

Market at 65.8% looks better calibrated than the model's 57.6% given the starter gap: Misiorowski at 1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 13.18 K/9 against Peterso...

Model's 57.6% on LAD is well below the market's 73.8% implied, and the market looks right: Skubal (2.86 ERA, 10.81 K/9, 0.98 WHIP) against Lodolo (...

Both starters are TBD with fallback stat lines, so neither side's projection is trustworthy. Market has SEA at 54.6% vs model 61.1%; I side with th...

Model has MIN at 54.1% against a market implying 56.1% for Detroit, a double-digit swing driven by Minnesota's offensive comparison (5.5 RPG, .673...

Model's 9.36-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.5 market line despite Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor being its own top negative total featur...

Market (-121, 53.7%) is slightly higher on Miami than the model's 50.2%, and the pitching matchup supports the home side: Alcantara at 3.54 ERA / 1...

Essentially a coin flip: model has KCR at 50.1%, market implies 48.1%. Wacha's 3.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 176.7 IP is solid, resolved data, while...