AF at AR

Model has SDP at 59.4% versus a pick'em market (implied 50.2%) — a 9-point gap I can't justify given San Diego's .547 OPS and 4.6 RPG against Pitts...

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.38 ERA over 72 IP belongs to a substitute profile), so the 62.8% model number is built on an unreliable...

Model has OAK at 54% against a market implying 41% — a 13-point gap I can't justify. Springs carries a 6.02 ERA and 1.48 WHIP versus Matthews at 5....

Model's 53.8% on Detroit sits ~9 points above the market's 45.2% and is hard to justify: Rasmussen (3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.25 K/9) clearly outclass...

Model's 59.4% on SFG versus market's 40.5% is a 19-point gap built on a fallback starter (TBD, 5.7 IP sample) and a team scoring 3.1 RPG with a .38...

Chicago has the better record (75-56 vs 69-62), the better OPS (.694 vs .564), and the better starter: Gausman's 4.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP with 8.98 K/9 t...

Wheeler (2.92 ERA, 10.77 K/9) edges Gilbert (3.35, 9.4) and PHI is 73-58 vs 62-69, so the model's slight SEA tilt looks like park-factor overweight...

Both starters sit under 3.50 ERA with identical 1.18 WHIPs, so the model's 8.83-run total looks high against a 7.5 market line in a neutral park (P...