sharps.ggEvery pick graded

MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-07 / 10 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-07
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+165
CHCChicago Cubs-200
Pick Probability60%CHC moneyline
CINRhett Lowder
CHCShota Imanaga
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors CHC at 64% vs model's 60%, a 4pp comparison. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 50 IP is concerning despite 12.6 K/9. CIN's offense (3.8 RPG, .629...

Updated Edge and EV held
#2MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins-105
WSNWashington Nationals-114
Pick Probability58%WSN moneyline
MINSimeon Woods Richardson
WSNJake Irvin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
WSN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
#3MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+121
KCRKansas City Royals-144
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
CLESlade Cecconi
KCRSeth Lugo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
#4MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-104
BOSBoston Red Sox-115
Pick Probability58%BOS moneyline
TBRGriffin Jax
BOSJake Bennett
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
#5MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+142
SDPSan Diego Padres-170
Pick Probability58%SDP moneyline
STLMatthew Liberatore
SDPMichael King
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-07
Rank#2
TEX at NYYTexas Rangers at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickNYYlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTEX / 53%Model pick probability

Model favors TEX at 53% but market has NYY at 58%. NYY offensive comparison is real (5.8 vs 2.9 RPG), but model sees negative home_statcast_offense_short_xwoba. Gore's...

Rank#3
CIN at CHCCincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCHC / 60%Model pick probability

Market favors CHC at 64% vs model's 60%, a 4pp comparison. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 50 IP is concerning despite 12.6 K/9. CIN's offense (3.8 RPG, .629 OPS) is weak but Lo...

Rank#4
NYM at COLNew York Mets at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickNYMlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYM / 55%Model pick probability

Model predicts 9.44 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market set at 11.0. The 1.56-run gap flags structural underweight of park factor. Scott's missing season stats create tota...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

MarketAll marketsMoneyline
ProbabilityGame time
10 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+165
CHCChicago Cubs-200
Pick Probability60%CHC moneyline
CINRhett Lowder
CHCShota Imanaga
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market favors CHC at 64% vs model's 60%, a 4pp comparison. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 50 IP is concerning despite 12.6 K/9. CIN's offense (3.8 RPG, .629...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins-105
WSNWashington Nationals-114
Pick Probability58%WSN moneyline
MINSimeon Woods Richardson
WSNJake Irvin
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
WSN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+121
KCRKansas City Royals-144
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
CLESlade Cecconi
KCRSeth Lugo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-104
BOSBoston Red Sox-115
Pick Probability58%BOS moneyline
TBRGriffin Jax
BOSJake Bennett
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+142
SDPSan Diego Padres-170
Pick Probability58%SDP moneyline
STLMatthew Liberatore
SDPMichael King
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-152
COLColorado Rockies+128
Pick Probability55%NYM moneyline
NYMChristian Scott
COLJose Quintana
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model predicts 9.44 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market set at 11.0. The 1.56-run gap flags structural underweight of park factor. Scott's missing seas...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-110
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-110
Pick Probability55%PIT moneyline
PITMitch Keller
ARIZac Gallen
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
PIT moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+110
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-132
Pick Probability54%PHI moneyline
OAKJ.T. Ginn
PHIAndrew Painter
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers+125
NYYNew York Yankees-150
Pick Probability53%TEX moneyline
TEXMacKenzie Gore
NYYPaul Blackburn
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors TEX at 53% but market has NYY at 58%. NYY offensive comparison is real (5.8 vs 2.9 RPG), but model sees negative home_statcast_offense...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+104
MIAMiami Marlins-125
Pick Probability51%MIA moneyline
BALCade Povich
MIAMax Meyer
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
MIA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
sharps.gg