MLB moneyline board.

Model has COL at 51.9% but market prices LAD at 66.9% — a 15-point gap. Freeland's 7.25 ERA in 77 IP is terrible; COL's .531 OPS is worst-in-sample material. LAD 59-31...

Market has PHI at 68% implied, model at 57%. The gap favors market's view: Sánchez (2.00 ERA, 10.46 K/9 in 117 IP) is a legit ace; Cameron (4.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) is hit...

Model sees coin flip (52.7% TBR), market agrees (51.9% TBR). Schlittler's 2.08 ERA over 104 IP is elite and sustainable. NYY's 3.0 RPG is season-low but TBR's 6.3 RPG...

Market favors MIL at 52% implied, model has STL at 52.7% — a near coin flip. MIL's superior record (54-33 vs 47-39) and .972 OPS vs .812 argues for the road favorite....