MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-10 / 14 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-10
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+150
CHWChicago White Sox-178
Pick Probability61%CHW moneyline
OAKJacob LopezConfirmed
CHWSean BurkeConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model at 60.7% converges with market-implied 60.8% on CHW. Burke (3.56 ERA) vs Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring CHW. Model...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+176
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-213
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
ARIEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
LADKyle HurtConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Market has LAD at 69.5% implied, model at 60.7% — 8.8 pp gap flags large disagreement. Ohtani (1.79 ERA, 9.98 K/9 over 85.7 IP) and Rodriguez (2.25...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners+106
TBRTampa Bay Rays-125
Pick Probability57%SEA moneyline
SEALuis CastilloConfirmed
TBRNick MartinezConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors SEA 57% but market has TBR -119 (53% implied). Away pitcher is fallback data (Castillo stats unavailable), making model's SEA lean str...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-156
WSNWashington Nationals+130
Pick Probability56%WSN moneyline
NYYRyan WeathersConfirmed
WSNCarson PalmquistConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
NYY / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has WSN 56% vs market 41% — a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Palmquist's 7.11 ERA in 6.3 IP (9 starts) suggests he's not startin...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros-141
TEXTexas Rangers+118
Pick Probability56%TEX moneyline
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
TEXCal QuantrillConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
TEX / pass confidence / Rank 11

Model has TEX 56% vs market 44% — a 12-point gap flags structural disagreement. Both starters sub-3.40 ERA qualify as ace matchup, yet model predic...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-10
Rank#1
NYY at WSNNew York Yankees at Washington Nationals
AI Analyst PickNYYstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelWSN / 56%Model pick probability

Model has WSN 56% vs market 41% — a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Palmquist's 7.11 ERA in 6.3 IP (9 starts) suggests he's not starting full games; Weathe...

Rank#2
ATL at STLAtlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
AI Analyst PickATLstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSTL / 53%Model pick probability

Model gives STL 52.7% vs market's 39.7%, a 13-point gap favoring the home dog. Sale's 2.27 ERA and 10.61 K/9 over 95 IP is elite; Leahy's 3.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 86...

Rank#3
KCR at BALKansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Agrees with modelBAL / 50%Model pick probability

Market has BAL at 58.5% vs model's 50.0% — an 8.5 point gap. Young's 3.38 ERA over 77.1 IP is real; Avila's 5.05 ERA and 1.59 WHIP suggests vulnerability. Camden Yards...

Rank#4
ARI at LADArizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 60%Model pick probability

Market has LAD at 69.5% implied, model at 60.7% — 8.8 pp gap flags large disagreement. Ohtani (1.79 ERA, 9.98 K/9 over 85.7 IP) and Rodriguez (2.25 ERA over 108 IP) fo...

Rank#5
OAK at CHWOakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Agrees with modelCHW / 61%Model pick probability

Model at 60.7% converges with market-implied 60.8% on CHW. Burke (3.56 ERA) vs Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring CHW. Model total 9.54 sits 0.5...

Rank#6
CLE at MIACleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
AI Analyst PickMIAlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIA / 53%Model pick probability

Model has MIA 52.7%, market 52.6%—dead heat. Total divergence is the story: model 9.08 vs market 7.0. MIA offense is real (7.5 RPG, .774 OPS) but Messick's 2.8 ERA in...

Rank#7
BOS at NYMBoston Red Sox at New York Mets
AI Analyst PickBOSlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelNYM / 50%Model pick probability

Model projects 9.18 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.68 run gap. Gray's 2.61 ERA and McLean's 3.73 in pitcher-neutral Citi Field (PF 1.03) don't support 9+ runs. Model is over...

Rank#8
SEA at TBRSeattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSEA / 57%Model pick probability

Model favors SEA 57% but market has TBR -119 (53% implied). Away pitcher is fallback data (Castillo stats unavailable), making model's SEA lean structurally suspect. M...

Rank#9
CHC at CINChicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCIN / 53%Model pick probability

Greene's 21.6 ERA across 3.3 IP (10 starts listed but minimal innings) is incomplete data masquerading as disaster—model likely filling from team averages. CHC's 6.2 R...

Rank#10
LAA at MINLos Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
AI Analyst PickMINlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelLAA / 52%Model pick probability

Model likes LAA at 51.9% vs market MIN -127 (54.8%). I side with market: Rodriguez's 8.06 ERA in 25.7 IP is genuine trouble, while Matthews' 4.43/1.16 is competent. LA...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

14 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+150
CHWChicago White Sox-178
Pick Probability61%CHW moneyline
OAKJacob LopezConfirmed
CHWSean BurkeConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model at 60.7% converges with market-implied 60.8% on CHW. Burke (3.56 ERA) vs Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring CHW. Model...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+176
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-213
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
ARIEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
LADKyle HurtConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Market has LAD at 69.5% implied, model at 60.7% — 8.8 pp gap flags large disagreement. Ohtani (1.79 ERA, 9.98 K/9 over 85.7 IP) and Rodriguez (2.25...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners+106
TBRTampa Bay Rays-125
Pick Probability57%SEA moneyline
SEALuis CastilloConfirmed
TBRNick MartinezConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors SEA 57% but market has TBR -119 (53% implied). Away pitcher is fallback data (Castillo stats unavailable), making model's SEA lean str...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-156
WSNWashington Nationals+130
Pick Probability56%WSN moneyline
NYYRyan WeathersConfirmed
WSNCarson PalmquistConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
NYY / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has WSN 56% vs market 41% — a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Palmquist's 7.11 ERA in 6.3 IP (9 starts) suggests he's not startin...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros-141
TEXTexas Rangers+118
Pick Probability56%TEX moneyline
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
TEXCal QuantrillConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
TEX / pass confidence / Rank 11

Model has TEX 56% vs market 44% — a 12-point gap flags structural disagreement. Both starters sub-3.40 ERA qualify as ace matchup, yet model predic...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+102
SDPSan Diego Padres-120
Pick Probability56%SDP moneyline
TORShane BieberConfirmed
SDPJP SearsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-102
DETDetroit Tigers-118
Pick Probability54%DET moneyline
PHIAaron NolaConfirmed
DETJack FlahertyConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
DET moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+105
MIAMiami Marlins-125
Pick Probability53%MIA moneyline
CLEParker MessickConfirmed
MIASandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
MIA / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model has MIA 52.7%, market 52.6%—dead heat. Total divergence is the story: model 9.08 vs market 7.0. MIA offense is real (7.5 RPG, .774 OPS) but M...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-117
CINCincinnati Reds-102
Pick Probability53%CIN moneyline
CHCShota ImanagaConfirmed
CINHunter GreeneConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Greene's 21.6 ERA across 3.3 IP (10 starts listed but minimal innings) is incomplete data masquerading as disaster—model likely filling from team a...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-164
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+137
Pick Probability53%STL moneyline
ATLChris SaleConfirmed
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model gives STL 52.7% vs market's 39.7%, a 13-point gap favoring the home dog. Sale's 2.27 ERA and 10.61 K/9 over 95 IP is elite; Leahy's 3.86 ERA...

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+130
SFGSan Francisco Giants-155
Pick Probability53%SFG moneyline
COLTanner GordonConfirmed
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
SFG moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+130
MINMinnesota Twins-155
Pick Probability52%LAA moneyline
LAAGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
MINZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 10 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes LAA at 51.9% vs market MIN -127 (54.8%). I side with market: Rodriguez's 8.06 ERA in 25.7 IP is genuine trouble, while Matthews' 4.43/1...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+131
BALBaltimore Orioles-156
Pick Probability50%BAL moneyline
KCRLuinder AvilaConfirmed
BALBrandon YoungConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market has BAL at 58.5% vs model's 50.0% — an 8.5 point gap. Young's 3.38 ERA over 77.1 IP is real; Avila's 5.05 ERA and 1.59 WHIP suggests vulnera...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+122
NYMNew York Mets-145
Pick Probability50%NYM moneyline
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
NYMNolan McLeanConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model projects 9.18 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.68 run gap. Gray's 2.61 ERA and McLean's 3.73 in pitcher-neutral Citi Field (PF 1.03) don't support 9+...

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