MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-08 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
ATL at NYY Aug 8, 1:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChris Sale ATL starter / away
Projected K 6.6 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -130 fanatics / U +145 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 49% over
O 7.5 35% over
O 8.5 23% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -129 betrivers / U +124 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% over
O 7.5 24% over
O 8.5 15% over
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
LAA at MIA Aug 8, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWalbert Urena LAA starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +134 fanduel / U -164 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 bovada / U -115 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
OAK at BOS Aug 8, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 draftkings / U -115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% over
O 9.5 3% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Jake Bennett BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 betmgm / U +121 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TOR at PHI Aug 8, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Scherzer TOR starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -133 draftkings / U +108 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Aaron Nola PHI starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 betrivers / U -115 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
NYM at PIT Aug 8, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Stock NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 67% over
O 3.5 46% over
O 4.5 28% under
O 5.5 15% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Bubba Chandler PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 draftkings / U -108 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
CIN at WSN Aug 8, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betrivers / U +120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 47% over
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Andrew Alvarez WSN starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIN at MIL Aug 8, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.9 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betmgm / U -158 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 6.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 69% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 38% over
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U -112 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% under
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHC at KCR Aug 8, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastClay Holmes CHC starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% under
O 2.5 70% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Seth Lugo KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +139 betonlineag / U -134 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
BAL at TEX Aug 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 fanduel / U -120 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 7.0 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +113 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 81% over
O 5.5 68% over
O 6.5 54% over
O 7.5 40% over
O 8.5 28% over
O 9.5 18% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
COL at STL Aug 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Freeland COL starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -105 betmgm / U -106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +122 fanduel / U -141 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at SFG Aug 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJackson Jobe DET starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -140 draftkings / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 24% under
O 5.5 12% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Landen Roupp SFG starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -156 fanduel / U +126 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
HOU at SDP Aug 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPeter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -123 draftkings / U +114 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% under
O 4.5 58% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Michael King SDP starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +138 fanduel / U -155 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CLE at CHW Aug 8, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGavin Williams CLE starter / away
Projected K 7.5 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -142 fanduel / U +125 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 47% under
O 8.5 34% under
O 9.5 23% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -157 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
LAD at ARI Aug 8, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -106 fanduel / U -113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 fanatics / U -104 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
TBR at SEA Aug 8, 7:50 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGriffin Jax TBR starter / away
Projected K 6.0 Did not start / void
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -111 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 83%
O 4.5 70%
O 5.5 54%
O 6.5 39%
O 7.5 26%
O 8.5 16%
O 9.5 9%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
George Kirby SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -145 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.