MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-01 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
NYM at TBR Sep 1, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Manaea NYM starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -110 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -156 fanduel / U +127 betonlineag 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
SFG at PIT Sep 1, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLogan Webb SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -175 betmgm / U +138 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TOR at CLE Sep 1, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSpencer Miles TOR starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% under
O 2.5 53% under
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Gavin Williams CLE starter / home
Projected K 7.2 Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -145 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 70% over
O 6.5 56% over
O 7.5 42% over
O 8.5 30% over
O 9.5 20% over
O 10.5 12% over
O 11.5 7% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.
SDP at CIN Sep 1, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Vásquez SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +116 draftkings / U -146 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betmgm / U -102 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% over
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at WSN Sep 1, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAJ Smith-Shawver ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 50% over
O 4.5 31% over
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jake Irvin WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -130 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SEA at BOS Sep 1, 4:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 betrivers / U +119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 31% over
O 6.5 18% over
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jedixson Paez BOS starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at MIN Sep 1, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -147 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Andrew Morris MIN starter / home
Projected K 2.2 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 65% under
O 2.5 38% under
O 3.5 19% under
O 4.5 8% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
MIA at KCR Sep 1, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +107 draftkings / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% under
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Randy Dobnak KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 fanatics / U -108 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% over
O 4.5 35% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIL at CHC Sep 1, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -158 fanduel / U +130 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Matthew Boyd CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -139 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
OAK at TEX Sep 1, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Basso OAK starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 53% under
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore TEX starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% under
O 5.5 57% under
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHW at HOU Sep 1, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSean Burke CHW starter / away
Projected K 5.8 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 betmgm / U -125 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Ronel Blanco HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at COL Sep 1, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Bradish BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 fanatics / U +105 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gabriel Hughes COL starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +120 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYY at LAA Sep 1, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGerrit Cole NYY starter / away
Projected K 6.7 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -104 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% under
O 6.5 50% under
O 7.5 36% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Grayson Rodriguez LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +102 fanduel / U -117 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
PHI at ARI Sep 1, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJesús Luzardo PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 draftkings / U +108 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% over
O 6.5 48% under
O 7.5 34% under
O 8.5 22% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +133 betrivers / U -150 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
STL at LAD Sep 1, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 bovada / U -155 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eric Lauer LAD starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +123 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.