MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-02 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
SDP at CIN Sep 2, 10:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCasey Mize SDP starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -106 draftkings / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon Williamson CIN starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -129 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% over
O 5.5 14% under
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at WSN Sep 2, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrant Holmes ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.7 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 fanduel / U -145 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Brad Lord WSN starter / home
Projected K 3.1 Actual 6 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% over
O 2.5 59% over
O 3.5 37% over
O 4.5 21% over
O 5.5 10% over
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
OAK at TEX Sep 2, 12:35 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Lopez OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 fanatics / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cody Bradford TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at COL Sep 2, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTrevor Rogers BAL starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 betmgm / U -130 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 40% over
O 6.5 26% over
O 7.5 15% over
O 8.5 8% over
O 9.5 4% over
O 10.5 2% over
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -112 draftkings / U -111 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at ARI Sep 2, 1:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -145 betmgm / U +125 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% over
O 5.5 22% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Taylor Clarke ARI starter / home
Projected K 2.2 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 64% under
O 2.5 38% under
O 3.5 18% under
O 4.5 8% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SEA at BOS Sep 2, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Miller SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Patrick Sandoval BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +130 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% under
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
NYM at TBR Sep 2, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJustin Hagenman NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.0 Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -156 betonlineag / U +125 betmgm 3 books at this line
Model over 2.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 36% under
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 bovada / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SFG at PIT Sep 2, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 draftkings / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Bubba Chandler PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -135 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TOR at CLE Sep 2, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 7.5 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 fanduel / U -106 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% under
O 5.5 74% under
O 6.5 61% under
O 7.5 47% under
O 8.5 34% under
O 9.5 23% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Joey Cantillo CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -145 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% over
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at MIN Sep 2, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Anderson DET starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -160 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% over
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dean Kremer MIN starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betonlineag / U -135 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIA at KCR Sep 2, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 betrivers / U +122 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% under
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 betmgm / U +100 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIL at CHC Sep 2, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Misiorowski MIL starter / away
Projected K 7.5 Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -106 betrivers / U +100 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% under
O 6.5 61% under
O 7.5 47% under
O 8.5 35% under
O 9.5 24% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
David Peterson CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 bovada / U -137 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
CHW at HOU Sep 2, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDavis Martin CHW starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 53% over
O 3.5 31% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Hayden Wesneski HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -148 draftkings / U +125 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 60%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 29% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
NYY at LAA Sep 2, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCam Schlittler NYY starter / away
Projected K 7.5 Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +115 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 93% over
O 4.5 85% over
O 5.5 74% over
O 6.5 61% over
O 7.5 47% over
O 8.5 35% over
O 9.5 24% under
O 10.5 15% under
O 11.5 9% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +100 bovada / U -104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 65% over
O 6.5 50% over
O 7.5 36% over
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
STL at LAD Sep 2, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrycen Mautz STL starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 81% under
O 2.5 59% under
O 3.5 38% under
O 4.5 21% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 betmgm / U +111 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 55% over
O 6.5 40% over
O 7.5 27% over
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.