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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-06 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
MIL at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -115 fanduel / U -103 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U +104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 fanatics / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +110 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

LAA at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Walbert UrenaLAA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -158 fanduel / U +125 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 fanatics / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.584%under
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

BOS at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 fanatics / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.54%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betmgm / U +125 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SFG at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cesar PerdomoSFG starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Christian ScottNYM starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 betmgm / U +143 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHC at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Clay HolmesCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanatics / U -105 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +126 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

DET at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jackson JobeDET starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U +108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K9.0Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -135 betmgm / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 7.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.593%over
O 5.587%over
O 6.578%over
O 7.566%over
O 8.554%over
O 9.542%over
O 10.531%over
O 11.521%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

TOR at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer ArrighettiTOR starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -102 fanduel / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Randy DobnakKCR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +100 betmgm / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.570%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ARI at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 draftkings / U +105 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

TBR at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.587%under
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -149 betonlineag / U +123 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

STL at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +115 draftkings / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 2.577%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Tanner GordonCOL starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -167 betrivers / U +140 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

OAK at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +108 fanduel / U -122 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

NYY at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%under
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIN at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +110 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Bryan HudsonCHW starter / home
Projected K1.9Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.556%over
O 2.529%under
O 3.513%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

WSN at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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