MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-07 / 22 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
ATL at PHI Sep 7, 11:05 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrant Holmes ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +109 draftkings / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 48% over
O 4.5 29% over
O 5.5 16% over
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jesús Luzardo PHI starter / home
Projected K 7.7 Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +122 fanduel / U -146 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 98% over
O 3.5 94% over
O 4.5 86% over
O 5.5 76% over
O 6.5 63% over
O 7.5 49% over
O 8.5 36% over
O 9.5 25% over
O 10.5 16% over
O 11.5 10% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
NYM at MIA Sep 7, 11:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJonah Tong NYM starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -118 betrivers / U +102 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 23%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 23% over
O 5.5 12% over
O 6.5 5% over
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.7 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -115 fanduel / U +103 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
LAA at BOS Sep 7, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrayson Rodriguez LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -113 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Brayan Bello BOS starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -135 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CLE at BAL Sep 7, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoey Cantillo CLE starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betrivers / U +120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% under
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 46% under
O 6.5 31% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Trevor Rogers BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.9 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 fanatics / U +109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 68% over
O 5.5 52% over
O 6.5 37% under
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 15% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at MIL Sep 7, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Boyd CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +133 draftkings / U -146 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% over
O 5.5 26% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +131 draftkings / U -143 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ARI at KCR Sep 7, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDerek Law ARI starter / away
Projected K 1.6 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 49% under
O 2.5 23% under
O 3.5 9% under
O 4.5 3% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 67%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
MIN at DET Sep 7, 1:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -115 bovada / U -109 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 71%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Troy Melton DET starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -137 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
WSN at SDP Sep 7, 3:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJake Irvin WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 fanduel / U -135 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 fanduel / U +115 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% under
O 3.5 65% under
O 4.5 47% under
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
STL at SFG Sep 7, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betmgm / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Logan Webb SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +124 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 23%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 12% over
O 7.5 6% over
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
CIN at LAD Sep 7, 7:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastChase Burns CIN starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -142 fanduel / U +117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Emmet Sheehan LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +109 betonlineag / U -135 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 28%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% over
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
TOR at OAK Sep 7, 8:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 6.9 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +100 fanduel / U -110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% over
O 5.5 67% over
O 6.5 52% under
O 7.5 38% under
O 8.5 26% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jacob Lopez OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -128 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 76% under
O 4.5 59% under
O 5.5 43% under
O 6.5 28% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.