MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-05 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
SFG at NYM Sep 5, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Molina SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.5 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 fanduel / U -121 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% over
O 5.5 14% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 betmgm / U +121 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 40% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at MIA Sep 5, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJavier Assad CHC starter / away
Projected K 3.1 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 betmgm / U +104 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 59% over
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Ryan Gusto MIA starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
ATL at PHI Sep 5, 4:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMartín Pérez ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 draftkings / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 47%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Zack Wheeler PHI starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +105 draftkings / U -118 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% over
O 6.5 49% over
O 7.5 35% over
O 8.5 24% over
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
DET at CLE Sep 5, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFramber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -157 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +102 draftkings / U -125 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% over
O 8.5 14% over
O 9.5 8% over
O 10.5 4% over
O 11.5 2% over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
LAA at PIT Sep 5, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYusei Kikuchi LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -101 draftkings / U -111 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 47% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -140 betmgm / U +124 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% over
O 8.5 9% over
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
MIL at CIN Sep 5, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +105 bovada / U -118 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 65% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Andrew Abbott CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 bovada / U +110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
TBR at TEX Sep 5, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDrew Rasmussen TBR starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -111 fanduel / U +110 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / home
Projected K 5.3 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 76% over
O 4.5 60% over
O 5.5 43% over
O 6.5 29% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
BOS at BAL Sep 5, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U +101 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 27% over
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Chris Bassitt BAL starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
TOR at KCR Sep 5, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMax Scherzer TOR starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -110 fanatics / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 49% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Seth Lugo KCR starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +112 fanduel / U -138 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% under
O 2.5 71% under
O 3.5 51% under
O 4.5 32% under
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIN at CHW Sep 5, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTaj Bradley MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 draftkings / U -130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Anthony Kay CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -147 betonlineag / U +120 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 66%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 82% over
O 3.5 66% under
O 4.5 48% under
O 5.5 31% under
O 6.5 18% under
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at SDP Sep 5, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarlos Rodón NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -142 fanduel / U +115 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Robbie Ray SDP starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% under
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
ARI at HOU Sep 5, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrandon Pfaadt ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 fanduel / U -150 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 59% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ethan Pecko HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -104 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 58% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
STL at COL Sep 5, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -142 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Mason Adams COL starter / home
Projected K 3.7 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -113 fanduel / U +104 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% over
O 6.5 9% over
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at LAD Sep 5, 7:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Cavalli WSN starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 betmgm / U +115 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 32% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Tyler Glasnow LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.2 Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +115 draftkings / U -141 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 73% over
O 5.5 58% over
O 6.5 43% over
O 7.5 29% over
O 8.5 19% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
OAK at SEA Sep 5, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJeffrey Springs OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +127 draftkings / U -154 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 34%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
George Kirby SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +104 betrivers / U -115 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.