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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-21 / 6 starters
Market
Lines
TOR at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 fanduel / U -133 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 betmgm / U -162 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

WSN at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
DJ HerzWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betmgm / U -152 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

River RyanDET starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -104 draftkings / U -115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIN at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 draftkings / U -105 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +130 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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