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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-09-20 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
PHI at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jonah TongNYM starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 fanduel / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

KCR at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 draftkings / U +117 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.557%under
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

BOS at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Patrick SandovalBOS starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -149 betonlineag / U +132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -163 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

OAK at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jack PerkinsOAK starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K8.9Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -140 betmgm / U +122 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.593%over
O 5.586%over
O 6.577%over
O 7.565%over
O 8.553%over
O 9.541%under
O 10.530%under
O 11.521%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

CHC at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 draftkings / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 draftkings / U -132 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -150 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%over
O 7.532%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

DET at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -121 draftkings / U +110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 fanduel / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.520%over
O 5.510%over
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

WSN at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 betmgm / U +103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Quinn MathewsSTL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -133 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TOR at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Spencer MilesTOR starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%over
O 3.531%over
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

SEA at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kade AndersonSEA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 fanatics / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

MIN at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIA at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanduel / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 betonlineag / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SFG at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K2.4Actual 6 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +110 bovada / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%over
O 2.544%over
O 3.523%over
O 4.511%over
O 5.54%over
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jack DreyerLAD starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.537%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

NYY at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betonlineag / U -132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Corbin BurnesARI starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%under
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

MIL at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K7.6Actual 4 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +120 betmgm / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.586%under
O 5.575%under
O 6.562%under
O 7.548%under
O 8.535%under
O 9.524%under
O 10.516%under
O 11.510%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -148 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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