MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-19 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics mybookieag
DET at CHW Sep 19, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJackson Jobe DET starter / away
Projected K 4.5 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 bovada / U +110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 5.2 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 betmgm / U -118 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 58% over
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
MIL at BAL Sep 19, 2:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRobert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 draftkings / U -113 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Trevor Rogers BAL starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +118 betonlineag / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% over
O 6.5 39% over
O 7.5 26% over
O 8.5 16% over
O 9.5 9% over
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
BOS at TBR Sep 19, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrayan Bello BOS starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 11 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -124 draftkings / U +105 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 64%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% over
O 5.5 13% over
O 6.5 6% over
O 7.5 2% over
O 8.5 1% over
O 9.5 0% over
O 10.5 0% over
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 fanduel / U +121 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PHI at NYM Sep 19, 2:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -110 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Christian Scott NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +126 fanduel / U -161 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
OAK at CLE Sep 19, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJacob Lopez OAK starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +106 fanduel / U -120 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% under
O 2.5 89% under
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 44% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 fanduel / U +100 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% under
O 3.5 73% under
O 4.5 56% under
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
KCR at PIT Sep 19, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 37% over
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bubba Chandler PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +124 fanduel / U -155 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
CHC at CIN Sep 19, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMatthew Boyd CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -115 bovada / U -105 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 51% under
O 5.5 34% under
O 6.5 21% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 betonlineag / U -145 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% under
O 2.5 83% under
O 3.5 67% under
O 4.5 49% under
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
TOR at TEX Sep 19, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJosé Soriano TOR starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -150 draftkings / U +120 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Cal Quantrill TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +132 draftkings / U -145 fanatics 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 79% under
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
ATL at HOU Sep 19, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGrant Holmes ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -147 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Hayden Wesneski HOU starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +114 draftkings / U -135 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
WSN at STL Sep 19, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Alvarez WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -155 betmgm / U +125 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% over
O 5.5 20% over
O 6.5 10% over
O 7.5 5% over
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -123 draftkings / U +105 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
SEA at COL Sep 19, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryce Miller SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 fanduel / U -125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 57% over
O 4.5 38% over
O 5.5 23% over
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Jose Quintana COL starter / home
Projected K 2.9 Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O +125 betmgm / U -149 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 2.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 78% over
O 2.5 55% under
O 3.5 33% under
O 4.5 17% under
O 5.5 8% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
NYY at ARI Sep 19, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCam Schlittler NYY starter / away
Projected K 6.2 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 bovada / U -125 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 85% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 57% over
O 6.5 42% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 18% under
O 9.5 11% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 draftkings / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% under
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at SDP Sep 19, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +115 bovada / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Casey Mize SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +120 betmgm / U -138 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 29%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SFG at LAD Sep 19, 7:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYunior Marte SFG starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.1 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% over
O 2.5 59% under
O 3.5 37% under
O 4.5 20% under
O 5.5 10% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.8 Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -105 draftkings / U -118 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 89% under
O 4.5 79% under
O 5.5 66% under
O 6.5 51% under
O 7.5 37% under
O 8.5 25% under
O 9.5 16% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIN at LAA Sep 19, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJoe Ryan MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -135 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 81% over
O 4.5 66% over
O 5.5 50% under
O 6.5 35% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 bovada / U -131 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% under
O 6.5 49% under
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.