Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has NYY 55.9%, market implies 55.7% — essentially aligned. Cole's 9.58 K/9 vs Kay's 7.32 K/9 and 1.37 WHIP favors away side. CHW offense (5.2...

Sale's 2.19 ERA over 111 IP vs Scott's 3.13 in 63 IP is a real quality gap despite ace_matchup flag. Market implies ATL 59%, model has 55%—reasonab...

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats; no market data to calibrate against. CLE's Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA, 11.11 K/9) is solid but facing an unk...

STL starter is TBD (fallback data), making both sides and total unreliable. CHC has strong offense (6.4 RPG, .694 OPS) vs STL's weak 3.5 RPG. Marke...

Model leans HOU at 55.2%, market is dead even at 50.5%. Lambert's 3.03 ERA in 98 IP is legitimate, Detmers' 4.05 is adequate. HOU's 4.6 RPG offense...

Market has CIN at 59.7% vs model's CLE 55.1%, a 4.6pp gap favoring home. Burns' 2.42 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 107.7 IP is elite; Cecconi's 4.60 ERA a...