Ranked picks with source labels.

Market at 70.7% implied vs model 66.5% on LAD suggests market sees bigger comparison. Wrobleski's 2.80 ERA over 93 IP is legitimate; Lorenzen's 6.9...

Model and market perfectly aligned at 60% TEX. DeGrom (3.48 ERA) and Soriano (3.42 ERA) qualify as ace matchup, but model predicts 8.64 runs vs mar...

Away pitcher TBD is a structural hole; model used fallback stats (106 IP composite). Market slightly favors TOR at -111 vs model's 52.7% SFG. Oracl...

Model has ARI at 57% but market is near coin-flip (52% SDP). Márquez's 5.79 ERA in 32.7 IP and Gallen's 6.36 ERA in 92 IP both suggest runs. Petco...

Model sees BAL 52.7% vs market 48.6%, a minor comparison for the home side. But CHC has superior record (50-40 vs 42-49) and offense (6.0 RPG, .694...

Model has STL 53.5% vs market 50.5% — essentially a coin flip. Sproat's 21.00 ERA in 3.0 IP is meaningless noise (1 bad appearance), but his presen...